Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Dereliction of Duty?

No, no, no gentle reader, just a little late that is all. I have the numbers for the new scratchers releasing today I am in the process of crunching them now. A few raised eyebrows, but nothing in this new crop to blow any dresses up.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Update 12.28.09: Merry Christmas, Happy New Year. etc...

So why no updates recently? Well, simple really. You see now that there are SO many new way to play the lottery (I.e. Powerball, Pick 3, soon Pick 4 and Mega Millions) The scratcher numbers are just not moving nearly as dynamically as they were. So updates might be a little further apart (that and I took a Christmas vacation!) But i remain here, ever vigilant. All current recommendations hold just where they are, including the $uper 7's $1000 Hot Spot!

More information as it breaks including approaching the end of life for some of the earlier scratchers and new ones reportedly on the horizon....

Monday, December 14, 2009

Pick Three Strategy. How to maximize your chances with minimal cash.

Pick three is here. Offering decent odds for modest payouts with CHEAP prices! Drawing TWICE A DAY! (At around 1pm and then in the evening around 7pm) So what to play? Well first let me try to explain the ways you can play the PICK THREE.

Straight - Option one is Straight. So if you pick 1-2-3, then 1-2-3 will have to come up in that EXACT order to win. Odds 1-1000. Prize $500 for a $1 buy-in, $250 for a .50 buy-in.

Box - Option Two is Box. So if you pick 1-2-3, then 1-2-3 wins, as well as 2-1-3, 2-3-1, 3-1-2, 3-2-1, or 1-3-2. Odds 1 in 167. Prize $80 for a $1 buy-in, $40 for a .50 buy-in.
          Now if you pick in the box a number such as 7-7-1. Then 7-7-1 wins as well as 7-1-7 and 1-7-7. The odds increase to 1 in 333. But the prize increases as well. $160 for a $1 buy-in and $80 for a .50 buy in.

Straight/Box - Option Three is Straight/Box. You cannot play a .50 buy-in with this option, only $1. So if you pick 2-3-4. If 2-3-4 hits, then you win $290, BUT if any other combination comes up (2-4-3, 4-2-3, 4-3-2, 3-2-4, 3-4-2) You win $40.
          As above, if you Straight/Box a number such as (4-4-1). If 4-4-1 hits, you win $330. BUT if the other two combinations come up (4-1-4 or 1-4-4) You snag $80.

Combo - Option Four is Combo. Not really a unique option it is just saying that you are buying all the combinations of the number you selected at regular price. So "comboing" the number 9-8-2, means you are buying 9-8-2, 9-2-8, 2-9-8, 2-8-9, 8-2-9, and 8-9-2, exactly as if you were purchasing those numbers individually. SO it's just like six individual tickets, so the $1 buy-in WILL COST YOU $6 and the payout is just like winning it straight, $500. The .50 buy-in will cost you $3, payout will be $250.
         As above, "comboing" a number such as (5-5-1) means you are playing 5-5-1, 5-1-5, and 1-5-5. Cost is $3 for the $1 buy-in and $1.50 for the .50 buy-in. Prizes are the same.

Before we go on, I have many people ask me about "number trends" and "hot numbers" and "numbers that haven't hit in a while", and services that will tell you, "mathematically" what numbers are "set to hit".

Put the kids to bed... are they away from the monitor? Good!

It's all bullshit!

Say in the morning the number 5-4-2 is drawn, well now you would think that there is NO WAY that 5-4-2 would be drawn in the evening right? Well not really, there was a 1 in 1000 chance for 5-4-2 to be drawn in the midday pull and there is an EQUAL 1 in 1000 chance that 5-4-2 will be drawn that afternoon. Numbers have no memory and no conscience. That's why "number runs", "hot numbers", etc, are all crap! And the illusion of some control over random chance is the reason they can build 30 story casinos in the Mississippi Delta!

For more information, I beg you to read...


It's a little technical, but it is for your own good!

So what to play? We want to maximize the odds while minimizing our investment. Here are a few to get you started, I'll post more later.

In the post I wrote Friday, let's say you had $2. Let's look at what you have to play to win a certain amount of cash and compare that to the best scratcher at that price point.

You want to win $40. Play four .50 Six Way Combos. (On your card, Mark the $0.50 cent box under plays A-D, Mark the Box to the left of the word "Box" under "Type" on plays A-D, and choose any three non-repeating numbers in each of the Play Areas.) THE COST $2.00, THE ODDS 1 in 41.67, BEST $2 SCRATCHER EQUIVALENT Arkansas Riches (1 in 264!)

You want to win $40 with the possibility of winning $290. Play two 6 way Straight/Boxes. (On your card under plays A and B, Mark the "STR/BOX" Box under "Type", and choose any three non-repeating numbers in each of the Play Areas) THE COST $2.00. THE ODDS TO WIN $290 1 in 500, THE ODDS TO WIN $40 1 in 100, TOTAL ODDS 1 in 83.3. BEST $2 SCRATCHER EQUIVALENT for $40 see above, for $290 the closest will be $200 in Money Madness at (1 in 5459!)

and finally for now, You want to win $500. Play two straight numbers at $1 each. THE COST $2.00. THE ODDS TO WIN 1 in 500. THE BEST $2 SCRATCHER EQUIVALENT for $500 it is Jumbo Bucks at a staggering (1 in 27,000!)

Be responsible out there folks and good luck. OH! and just for complete openness here, I am playing the Pick Three using the top option above, and I pick my numbers using a random number generator on my iPhone.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Pick Three is coming next Monday

GEE! Hasn't it been awhile since you blogged? Why yes, yes it has, it's been busy, so sorry. They have posted all of the new and exciting ways that they plan to take cash out of your pockets! PICK THREE, it starts Monday and by a preliminary crunching of the numbers I can give you this preview. The top prize is smaller than any scratcher on the board ($500) but the odds MORE than make up for it! And with such exotic plays like boxing, there is a few nice ways to make some decent scratch, not retirement scratch mind you, but "make your day a little more brighter" scratch to be sure.

FOR example. Let's take $2 and try to win $40 (a 20X payback). Here is the odds for that prize (or close to it) for each of the two dollar scratchers in play.

  • Wild Cherry Doubler Win $40. 1 in 401.
  • All The Money Win $35. 1 in 299.
  • Stocking Stuffer Win $40. 1 in 401.
  • Money Madness Win $50. 1 in 333.
  • Jumbo Bucks Win $30. 1 in 445.
  • Crazy 8's Win $50. 1 in 2486.
  • Arkansas Riches Win $40. 1 in 264.
If you  play a 6 Way Box for 4 different number combinations in the Pick Three. You cover 24 unique numbers. AND if you make it a 50 cent wager, you pay $2.00. The odds of winning $40 with this set of circumstances? 1 in 41.6! Which bests even the best scratcher odds by a factor of over six!

I urge you to go over to myarkansaslottery.com and check out the complete rules for the PICK THREE game. I will have a complete workup on Monday along with some recommendations for what to play.

Friday, December 4, 2009

12.04.09 Update: This is new, a card to AVOID

For the first time in this blog's 67 odd day existence, I finally have a card to avoid. It is time to avoid this card because it has only ONE top prize left and the odds are simply better elsewhere right now, in fact the odds are better pretty much anywhere right now. Maybe they'll recharge this card and get it off the schnide but I doubt it as it is one of the Christmas Themed cards. It is the $50,000 Holiday Cash ($3) scratcher. It has shed just a tremendous amount of value and should be steered clear of.

Super 7's continues with its $1,000 hot spot.

AND if you were one of the lucky Second Chance winners congratulations. The next second chance drawing is coming for the ($2) Money Madness cards. Deadline to get those cards in is Tuesday December 8th.

Monday, November 30, 2009


Well, finally they got around to posting the new scratcher info for us pleebs. I must say that the new bunch show some great promise (well except for a notable exception) read on and find out MOAR!

Game 013 - Beat the Dealer ($1) - Top Prizes $2,000 - $100 - $50
Oh look, another one dollar throw away card to beat on. Seriously, if I have said it before I have said it at least 355 times, if you only have $1 to play the lottery, save yourself another dollar and buy a $2 card. Especially when the $2 cards released in this go around are actually pretty nice comparative to what is out there now. Initial Recommendation on this card, a resounding 'Meh' which translates to HOLD.

Game 014 - All the Money ($2) - Top Prizes $22,000 - $1,000 - $250
This car boasts the best back of the card odds of any offering at this price point right now. A nice top prize and a cool grand in the second prize tier. A solid 64% EV put this card in the upper echelons of the $2 price point, and definitely better than any of the $1 offerings. Initial Recommendation, Better than a quick poke in the eye, could be a real sleeper as far as prizes go, so BUY.

Game 015 - Wild Cherry Doubler ($2) - Top Prizes $20,000 - $300 - $125
What this card has going for it is a TON of lower prizes, I mean the prizes off this card fall off a cliff, from a $20,000 top ALL THE WAY down to a $300 second prize. What this means is that you won't get rich off of this card BUT you will have fun raking in the metric ton of lower prizes available. In fact it has the best odds at snatching up a prize at the silver level ($11-$25) than any other $2 scratcher. So for the initial recommendation I say this card COULD make your day just a little brighter, so BUY.

Game 016 - Money Mania ($5) - Top Prizes $100,000 - $2,000 - $300
So now we get to the new $5 offering from the ASL. Let me just say, I LIKE this card. It has the best odds a the Bronze ($1-$10), Silver ($11-$25) and Gold ($26-$99) dollar prize levels, and the second best odds at the Platinum ($100+ excluding the top prize) level of ANY card on the board (exception of course is the steroid fueled $10 Jackpot Card). This is the best card on the board right now out of the gate, and thus gets my highest recommendation. STRONG BUY!

And the rest.
$1 tier, 3 Times Lucky and Money Bags. Yawn! IGNORE.
$1 tier, Candy Cane Cash. Similar yawn, HOLD.
$2 tier, Arkansas Riches and Stocking Stuffer. IGNORE. Time to either re-up Arkansas Riches or put the old warhorse to bed.
$2 tier, Jumbo Bucks. Ditto, HOLD
$2 tier, Money Madness and Crazy 8's. MILD BUY, better buys on the board.
$3 tier, Holiday Cash. BUY
$5 tier $100,000 Cash Bonanza. HOLD
$5 tier $uper 7s, Hot Spot, so MILD BUY.
$10 tier $500,000 Jackpot. Strong numbers still on this one, still $10 though, BUY.

11.29.09 Update: Delays, delays...

Well since the lottery commission had the weekend off they obviously decided NOT to post any numbers for their new cards (starting tomorrow). I guess no one at the commission could be bothered to pre-make the web-pages and then spend oh, two minutes on Friday logging in remotely from wherever they were and turned them on. Cripes! Numbers as soon as I get them. Were just waiting on YOU Lottery Commission...

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Happy Thanksgiving

No news on the lottery front really. Recommendations will remain right where they are until Friday or so when everything will go on its customary hold until the new numbers are in. Happy Thanksgiving folks!

Monday, November 23, 2009

Update 11.23.09 : Biting the Bullet

I can no longer deny the fact that the best buy on the board right now is the most expensive card in the game. The ($10) $500,000 Jackpot scratcher is pricey, yes! But right now it is the best odds and the best prizes on the board. If you can afford to part with $10 (and that is a big IF for some people) this is the card to currently buy, at least until someone knocks off one of those one-in-a-million $500,000 top prize. There have been a few moves over the weekend, let's sum up.

$500,000 Jackpot UPGRADE to Strong Buy. It's just the best value on the board right now.
$uper 7s UPGRADE to Mild Buy. The Hot Spot on the card helped that decision.
Stocking Stuffer UPGRADE to Mild Buy. The numbers are looking better on this card.
Jumbo Bucks DOWNGRADE to Mild Buy. The old veteran is showing his age.
Candy Cane Cash DOWNGRADE to Buy. It is the best buck waster on the board.

Next Tuesday we have new scratchers already. Of course the second the numbers are posted I am analyzing and reporting to you!

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Update II 11.18.09: You're recommending WHAT?

I thought I would never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never never neverdo what I am about to do.

My current recommendation ($1) Candy Cane Cash.

BUT EXILED YANKEE (You shout at your monitor) YOU ALWAYS SAID THAT $1 CARDS ARE A RIPOFF! YOU SAID SAVE YOUR MONEY AND GO AHEAD AND BUY A $2 CARD! Well I did, it's true. but a unique set of circumstances has presented itself.

  1. My old STRONG BUY recommendation ($3) $50,000 Holiday Cash. Has shed one of its top prizes and is no longer as attractive as it was. 
  2. NONE of the $2 tier of cards are lightning my world on fire right now. Including the ($2) Arkansas Riches card that needs to be drug out into a field and shot.
  3. The $5 cards are nice, but they are $5 and not everyone has that all the time.
  4. The $10 card is AWESOME, but it's $10, which even I think is pushing the envelope on how much you should pay for a scratcher.
  5. The ($1) Candy Cane Cash, was just RECHARGED and has a TON of prizes available and hey, it IS only a buck, even *I* can afford that right now!
So I guess the moral is never ever say never ever! If you have a buck or two, pick up one of these little gems!

Reported by: Cecillea Pond-Mayo, KARK 4 News

The Arkansas Lottery Commission approved 3 new games to begin early 2010. They include Cash 4, MegaMillions, and an instant win add-on to draw games.

So what does this mean. Well along with the Cash 3 (pick three numbers, should be a daily game) we are going to get a Cash 4 (pick four numbers, again should be daily), Mega Millions (Like Powerball with better odds, say the odds of an ice cube in hell rather than the odds of a snow cone in hell), and an instant win add-on to draw games (actually kind of a neat idea, I saw it last summer in New York if it is what I am thinking of. When you buy a Cash 3 ticket for example, if you buy the instant win booster then the machine prints out a quickie game piece right on your ticket for the possibility of an instant win). Do not know the odds of those add ons yet, but I have applauded the transparency of the Arkansas Lottery so far in such matters, so when they post the odds I will analyze them for you.

NEW SCRATCHERS are already coming in on December 1st. (yep, that soon!) From what I can cull so far they are...

  • MONEY MANIA (unknown dollar amount, unknown top prize) Looks to be another premium card however.
  • WILD CHERRY DOUBLER (unknown dollar amount and prize)
  • ALL THE MONEY (unknown dollar amount and prize) presumably not "All The Money" however.
  • BEAT THE DEALER (Looks to be a $1 card, unknown prize) I have a soft spot in my heart for all poker based cards, we'll see what the numbers look like!
Odds Should be released on November 27th, so take a break from Black Friday shopping and check out my recommendations!

Monday, November 16, 2009

Update 11.16.09: Second Chance Drawing dealine announced!

You know that pile of loser scratch-offs that are just lying around your dwelling. You keep saying to yourself, YEAH, I need to enter those into the second chance website one of these days... Well that "one of these days" is drawing close, QUICK!

you have until November 20th, (Friday) to get the tickets registered for the following games to be registered for the following prizes.

One prize of $100,000 to be drawn from $100,000 CASH BONANZA entries;
One prize of $25,000 to be drawn from JUMBO BUCKS entries;
One prize of $20,000 to be drawn from ARKANSAS RICHES entries;
One prize of $3,000 to be drawn from 3 TIMES LUCKY entries;
One prize of $2,000 to be drawn from MONEY BAGS entries.

So register and good luck! Numbers did not do enough moving over the weekend to quantify a Recommendation change on any level. So for now we are keeping them right there.

EDIT: OOPS! What I meant to say was, the $5 $uper 7s scratcher has a $1,000 Hot Spot, still a hold on the card but if you feel like gambling, there is a plethora of $1,000 prizes on this card right now!