11.06.09 Update: Now just hold everything!

Arkansans bought Over $1M in Powerball tickets for the first drawing. Powerball paid out to Arkansans $98,832 in winnings. That sets the EV (Expected Value) of a powerball ticket at no better than 9.8%. So based on the last drawing, for every dollar you spend on a Powerball ticket you can expect to get roughly 9.8 cents back!

Let's compare that to the EV of the scratchers.

• 3 Times Lucky (59.6%)
• Money Bags (59%)
• Arkansas Riches (63.3%)
• Jumbo Bucks (65%)
• Money Madness (62.3%)
• Crazy 8's (62.6%)
• $100,000 Cash Bonanza (68.8%)
• $uper 7s (68.3%)
• POWERBALL (9.8%)

Digest that the next time you are in line to buy a Powerball ticket. Again the smart thing is to organize a Powerball club. Smaller individual risk, smaller return, but more chances to win. My little club is on track to purchase 50 tickets (with power play) for this Saturday's drawing.

SO why a hold on every scratcher? Because this is the time when you should hold your money in antici.... (SAY IT!) pation for the new scratcher release. A Christmas themed release with 3 of the four scratchers following suit. The scratcher that does not have a Christmas theme will be Arkansas' first $10 scratcher, Top Prize $500,000! I WILL be breaking down the numbers all weekend, and give you my detailed recommendation on Monday. Until then the smart money says "save me"!

Update 11.04.09: Cooldown, new scratchers, and POWERBALL

A reminder, KARK Channel 4 (anyone else miss Roy Mitchell?) will be your local POWERBALL station. It will broadcast the POWERBALL drawing tonight at 9:59PM so turn in if you have a ticket, as Arkansas is dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century!

Money Madness? Had a hot spot Monday and Tuesday? Cooled down quickly. No hot spots currently on the board and it's recommendation is back down to MILD BUY. Crazy 8's $500 tier is now a COLD SPOT. Ignore this card! Everything else is holding right where they usually are.

That won't last for long however, as shortly everything will go to HOLD for the new scratchers. If Der Arkansas Lottery goes along with form, I will get the numbers Friday, they will release the cards Tuesday, and you can actually buy them in the stores, oh sometime around 2010 (no, probably later in the day, we'll see). OF COURSE don't buy a scratcher until you see the numbers here! It's just smart!

Good luck with POWERBALL tonight folks, $66M prize ($33.5M Cash Option) I have one ticket, because one is all I need ;)

11.02.09: Recharges and a new HOT SPOT!

Went to the river for the Arkansas Lottery Powerball party. Neat little time, a little music, some food (did not partake in), and if you bought $5 in scratchers you got a spin on a prize wheel. I bought $5 spun and won a $5 scratcher ($100,000 Cash Bonanza) and wound up winning $20. Plus three handfuls of those little red lottery scrapers. Funtime, remember that the first Arkansas Powerball drawing is this Wednesday, estimated jackpot is $66M.

Friday I should get the numbers for the new scratchers that are going to be introduced next Tuesday (Nov 10th) I will publish those numbers just as soon as I can. As for our current fleet, The $1 Money Bags ticket has been recharged. I still cannot endorse any of the two $1 offerings out there, but I have raised the recommendation for this scratcher from IGNORE to DON'T BUY. The $2 Money Madness ticket has developed a $1,000 HOT SPOT, lots of those prizes available and that raises it's recommendation from MILD BUY to BUY. The $2 Jumbo Bucks is still leading the recommendations with a STRONG BUY. A winner has stepped forward for the $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza top prize. So that card goes down to MILD BUY. It's cousin the $5 $uper 7s scratcher is up to a BUY from a MILD BUY. It's top prize is getting warmer.

As always remember to play the lottery for entertainment only, if you HAVE to win you HAVE to stop, contact your local gambler's anonymous.

Update 10.30.09 : Where to watch your balls.

Powerballs that is. Yesterday it was announced that KARK NBC4 will be the station that will locally air the Powerball drawings at 9:59PM On Wednesdays and Saturdays. The drawings are held at the Universal Studios in Orlando (Mickeyland) Florida.

Powerball.com go ahead, go there, take a look at the Powerball odds, go ahead, they're right there off the front page, I'll wait... RIDICULOUS aren't they? You are better off at buying a scratcher for a prize totaling $100 or more! Don't believe me? Approximate odds to win a $100 prize or more.

• $2 Arkansas Riches, 1 in 2557
• $2 Jumbo Bucks, 1 in 1808
• $2 Money Madness, 1 in 1209
• $2 Crazy 8's, 1 in 13310 (why I was never huge on this card!)
• Powerball starts at 1 in 13,644! for a $100 Prize!

 So play Powerball alone at your own risk, realizing you will never see that cash again. The reason I say alone, is that Powerball teams, are definitely the way to go to play this Multi-State Lottery. Where people pool their money together, buy a large amount of tickets and then find some fair and equitable way to split the winnings. You are going to want as many tickets in the game as possible to bring those astronomical odds down, to at least the Stratosphere anyhoo!

Card Recommendations remain right where they are. Here is a small update, On November 10th the new slate of scratchers come out, for $10 you can buy a chance at $500,000! Posted Odds on the back of the card for the $500,000 prize? 1 in 1,000,000 (even!) Good Luck this weekend, I'll see you all at the Powerball Party (maybe)

10.28.09: It's a party and you're invited.

It seems that there is going to be a Powerball party at the River Market Halloween night starting at 9:00 pm. There will be music, refreshments, and spins on a prize wheel (If you buy $5 worth of scratchers). Culminating at around 10:15pm when they will drop a big Powerball a la Times Square and you can start purchasing tickets. I don't know, I might go, it may be worth it to see the whole spectacle in person. If you are done trick-or-treating and the little crumb munchers are in bed, might be a good place to waste an hour of your time.

Crazy 8's ($2) has been shedding top prizes like crazy! Not only has its $18,888 Top Prize gone cold but its second tier $500 Prize has gone cold as well. Ignore this card. The $2 Money Madness card has also shed two of its top prizes, recommendation further downgraded to MILD BUY from BUY. The $2 Jumbo Bucks is still the best value on the board. We have heard rumors of another $100,000 winner from the $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card, but until it is official on the site, it is just hearsay as far as I am concerned.

And here we are, at day 30 of this experiment called the Arkansas Lottery. As of my current number run it has given out $26.5M in prizes, averaging about $890K a day. A poll came out yesterday reporting that fully half of Arkansans are just too pure of thought and mind (or just really smart probably) to ever think of buying one of those (scoff) lottery tickets. Well fine there Mr. Stick-up-your-arse, more for us sinners out here!

Update 10.27.09: New Top Recommendation

Looking at this morning's numbers I am downgrading the $2 Money Madness from STRONG BUY to BUY. I am upgrading the $2 Jumbo Bucks from MILD BUY to STRONG BUY. It is my official recommendation right now as the scratcher to buy.

10.27.09: Date Update

Here are the upcoming important dates for the Arkansas Lottery

OCTOBER 31st 10pm: Powerball tickets go on sale for the first time for the next Wednesday's drawing.
NOVEMBER 10th: Release THREE of the scratchers are unleashed. (Including a $3 card that I am keeping a close eye on!)
DECEMBER 10th: Release FOUR of the scratchers are unleashed. (Rumor still has it of a $20, $1,000,000 top prize card in this release)
DECEMBER 14th: Pick 3 daily game starts.
JANUARY 31, 2010: (still unconfirmed) MEGA-MILLIONS tickets go on sale for the Arkansas Lottery.
FEBRUARY 2010: Pick 4 daily game starts.

There was a $25,000 Jumbo Bucks winner yesterday, if the numbers have drastically changed overnight, I will of course have them here.

10.26.09 : Big moves over the weekend

The $2 Crazy 8's game has shed another one of its top prizes over the weekend. This leaves 3 of the 5 top prizes remaining in the game. This is a good reason to IGNORE that card, as the $18,888 prize tier has gone cold! The $2 scratcher to buy still remains in my opinion, the $2 Money Madness card, lots of good prizes remain on that card including its full slate of $18,000 top prizes. Want to try your mojo elsewhere in the $2 tier? The numbers for Jumbo Bucks still look spectacular.

Towards the more Mediterranean Avenue end of the spectrum, the throw-away $1 Money Bags ticket has developed not one but TWO cold spots on it! Both the $50 and $100 tier have shed many of their prizes. It is time to IGNORE this card more than you should already be ignoring it! My first rule of the $1 card tier remains, "Save another dollar and buy a $2 card".

To round out today's update, The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card has developed a hot spot. Right at the top! The $100,000 prize is now hot! It is going to hit any day now, so if you have the $5.00 extra and simply cannot stomach another foot-long, I say go for it!

Remember, Saturday starts Powerball, later in the week I will tell you why that isn't such a big deal.

10.23.09 : Small Update, as a card cools down.

The Arkansas Riches Hot Spot has cooled off finally, now the amount of $1,000 prizes are in line with how many should be gone out of the game. So the card itself goes to a HOLD recommendation. Also, yesterday when I said that a few top prizes should start shedding soon? The $2 Crazy 8s card shed one of its top $18,888 prizes yesterday. Congratulations to whoever scratched that! I am still not sold on that card however, remain a recommended IGNORE.

Next week I will be doing an exhaustive treatise on Powerball odds, stick around for that.

POTENTIALLY BIG NEWS!

When news flashed across my desk some weeks ago, about POWERBALL and MEGA MILLIONS cross selling tickets in certain states, I paid it little heed. Oh I was busy, or I deemed it not that important, or whatever. Well (and I truly hope the cat isn't out of the bag prematurely on this) I have word that not only will Arkansas start selling POWERBALL tickets on Oct. 31st, but also will start selling MEGA MILLIONS tickets on January 31st of next year...

Since no one has flashed this anywhere else I will put this into the pile on "unconfirmed static" out there in the news waves (along with the rumor of a $20 scratcher that will release with a top prize of a cool Million, by the end of the year). But if and when it IS confirmed, you heard it here first!


I like this, because the competition for your dollars is going to be extreme! Stay tuned....

10.22.09 Update: New scratchers named,

Man it has been awhile since ANY of the top prizes have hit on ANY of the scratcher cards in the lottery. Good luck when you buy your tickets in the next few days because we are due some big winners REAL soon. Especially the $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card. The top prize is getting plump when you compare the % of prizes remaining at the top tier with the % of prizes remaining overall. I hesitate to call any top prize a Hot Spot, but if it doesn't shed at least one $100,000 prize before next week, I might have to.

Meanwhile, as the new scratchers are just now getting settled into their acrylic counter prisons, the Arkansas Lottery has given us the tease on their webpage for scratcher release THREE. Including one scratcher that will make the $100,000 top prize in Cash Bonanza seem, well, small!

They are:

• Candy Cane Cash (Aw, it's a Christmas theme!) looks to be a $1 ticket
• Stocking Stuffer (See the theme here?) looks to be a $2 ticket
• $50,000 Holiday Cash (Like, I said, it's a theme!) Guessing it HAS to be a $5 ticket.
• $500,000 Jackpot (Jackpot INDEED! Half a million! I am guessing that this is the rumored $10 ticket)

No word yet on when they will start being offered, that I have seen at least. All recommendations stay right where they are. Remember to play the lottery for entertainment only, if you need to win you need to stop! Contact your local Gambler's Anonymous.

10.21.09 : A milestone, A winner, and a RECHARGE!

Sometime overnight, the Arkansas Lottery awarded it's 20 millionth dollar in prize money. As of my last number run the prize total stands at $20,496,437. That is $891,149 a day, or $26.91 a minute awarded. Are you getting a share of that? I did, cashed in a 10x winner ($20 winner off a $2 card) today. Which card? Money Madness. Which so far in my estimation is the best buy on the board right now.

The first scratcher that I ever recommended was the $2 Jumbo Bucks card. This card has the best odds among the $2 tier for prizes at the $26-$99 dollar level (what I call the gold level). Well good news! Overnight this card has been RECHARGED, it went from 5 out of 11 top prizes available to 16 out of 22 top prizes available! This card has become attractive again and which is why I have upgraded it in the left column. I have also downgraded further the $1 cards, waste of time people, stop buying them!

To clean up the news for today. Arkansas Riches ($2) Hot spot continues to glow. The new cards have awarded $309,453 so far, not bad for a late debut in the day. Finally, I have heard that by the end of the year, the Arkansas Lottery will introduce a $10 scratcher, information on that when it becomes available as always

The case of the missing scratchers.

Alright folks, here's the deal. UPS is delivering the scratchers today to the various outposts hither and yon in this fair land of ours. SO as soon as the UPS driver gets to your favorite convenience store, tobacco outlet, bowling alley, what-have-you, the kind proprietor's of said business will log the tickets in and place them inside the acrylic boxes on the counter for you to purchase with hopefully your leisure money and not your rent money.

In short, patience folks, there are PLENTY of tickets to go around! Bringing me to this statement, my intrepid web of secret reporters have reported (as reporters do) that a few people around this state got all irate and ballistic when their store of choice did NOT have the new scratchers. (sigh) People, there is no reason to get all nuclear with the store owner if they don't have the new scratchers. It ain't their fault, they ain't holding out on you. Complain to the Lottery Commission! It was their idea to have these ship the day of, rather than the day before, the starting sale date. A dropped ball and bad PR there Herr Passiguale (sp?).

By the way, my preferred lottery retailer, (Metro in the Union Building, Downtown Little Rock, closest to the Claim Center) does not have them either, but the second they do arrive, they will be logged in and sold to the waiting public. Patience my peeps.

10.20.09 Update: Well someone is selling them...

Heard from Cabot, Hot Springs and Little Rock this morning reporting that they have not received the new scratchers as of yet. But someone out there somewhere is selling them.
As of 9:30 AM this morning
 
$1 Money Bags awarded $10 so far.
$2 Money Madnress awarded $10 so far.
$2 Crazy 8s awarded $30 so far.
$5 $uper 7s awarded $50 so far.

Meanwhile when I am wrong I am wrong, the HOT SPOT on the $2 Arkansas Riches card did not disappear over the night as I thought it would. It is still there, so upgrade on that card until it is gone.

Update 10.20.09: Do not funk with the lottery, IF you can find scratchers that is.

From the KATV Website...

A woman is arrested inside the Arkansas Lottery Headquarters Monday afternoon…and KATV’s cameras were there for the arrest. Police say Ruth Dennis, 56, tried to pass a fake winning ticket for the real thing at the claims center. Her friend, John Burch says he gave Dennis and her sister a ride from Camden with a $3,000 ticket. 

Lottery director Ernie Passailaigue says the ticket was clearly not real. He says she used the three times lucky scratch tickets and allegedly cut and pasted different numbers to make it appear like a winner.


“There’s no cure for stupid,” Passailaigue said, “And that’s what’s going to happen. People are going to try and defraud the lottery and they’re going to go to jail.


Over the past three weeks, Passailaigue says Monday’s incident was the first “fake” ticket arrest in the state. He says the best way to win the lottery is to play it.

Police say the woman has been charged with one count of fraud in relation to the lottery ticket.

Remember folks, it is ILLEGAL to attempt to defraud a state agency, whether it be the Department of Finance and Administration, the Tax Folks, The Farm Agencies, or the Lottery. 


Meanwhile the website has not started rolling the numbers on the new scratchers as of yet. AND I have reports from my army of intrepid field reporters that there are some parts of the state that have not even received the tickets as of yet. AHEM, Yo lottery folks, it is WAY to early in this little experiment for you to be dropping the ball like this! I will have more after lunch.

The New Scratchers arrive Tuesday, here is what YOU need to know.

Four new scratchers are set to start selling tomorrow 10.20.09. They are Money Bags ($1), Money Madness ($2), Crazy 8's ($2), and $uper 7s ($5). Here is the breakdown and my recommendations on what to buy and what to avoid.

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($1) Money Bags - Top Prize $2,000 - Average Prize $2.73

I have maintained from the beginning, that the $1 scratchers are, most of the time, the largest rip-offs on the board. This card is no exception. With a paltry top prize and a WORSE payout schedule than the current $1 3 Times Lucky, I can say it is best to not buy this card. With most $1 scratchers it is this way however. As I have said before, if you have just $1 to play the lottery, do not buy a $1 card, wait until you have another dollar and buy a $2 card.

Initial Recommendation : Don't Buy

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($2) Crazy 8's - Top Prize $18,888 - Average Prize $4.84

I am not terribly impressed with this card. It comes out with the fewest top prizes of any of the $2 tier of cards. It has the worst Estimated Value of the $2 tier. It has the best back of the card odds (1 in 3.96 to win) but that is only half the story, (which is why you read this!). And the lowest Average Prize in the $2 tier. All in all there are just much better cards at this tier right now, not saying that this can't change in the future, but as of right now, just ignore this card.

Initial Recommendation : Ignore

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($5) $uper 7's - Top Prize $77,777 - Average Prize $11.13

It has a lower top prize than the other $5 offering right now, BUT it has better odds throughout it's prize tiers. Also it has a TON of prizes available at its $40 tier. How much is a ton? Well the estimated odds to win the tier above it ($70) are 1 in 330, to win the tier below it ($30) 1 in 160, the estimated odds to win $40 is 1 in 96. All of these odds are better than the same tiers on the $100,000 Cash Bonanza scratcher. So if you are going to buy a $5 card right now, I say buy this one. This is NOT to say that the $100,000 Cash Bonanza card should be put out to pasture, but more on that below.

Initial Recommendation : Buy

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($2) Money Madness - Top Prize $18,000 - Average Prize $5.38

This card makes me smile. It offers FIVE tiers of prizes that are at least $100. No card on the board does that right now, not even the $5 offerings. It's back of the card odds are the highest among the $2 tier, but I think the best assortment of prizes among any of these cards. If you ask me where my first money is landing on the new cards, I would say it is landing right here. It is the Cadillac of the $2 cards and should be on your buying list at the start. I will keep a close eye on this and all cards to see if this changes.

Initial Recommendation : Strong Buy

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And the others?

($1) 3 Times Lucky - Remains a Hold. Again, save your money and get a $2 card.

($2) Arkansas Riches - Has been RECHARGED with more prizes, Still has the $1,000 hot spot as well. Remains a Mild Buy.

($2) Jumbo Bucks - I am keeping at a Hold right now. There are just better options out there.

($5) $100,000 Cash Bonanza - Has been RECHARGED, and in a big way. There are now *FIVE* $100,000 lightning strikes out there. Good Hunting, Upgrade to Mild Buy.

UPDATE - Since this morning the Arkansas Riches Hot Spot has hemorrhaged prizes left and right, I expect it to officially cool down by tomorrow morning, recommendation downgraded to HOLD. 

Late Weekend News, and what to expect from the new scratchers.

The Arkansas Lottery has recharged both the $100,000 Cash Bonanza scratchers and the Arkansas Riches scratchers. The $100,000 Cash Bonanza scratchers now have *FIVE* $100,000 golden tickets out there somewhere. Come back tomorrow where I will have all that news, PLUS I have run the numbers and have my recommendations about what new scratchers are worth it and which ones to avoid. Stay Tuned!

10.16.09 Update2: Easy come, easy go.

When I said it was a hot spot, I didn't know it was nuclear! The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza $1,000 prize tier that I reported this morning at 69% remaining has just hemorrhaged prizes all day long. It is now down to 57% and has officially cooled off! This has been reflected in the left side column. All cards remain at a hold until new numbers for the new scratchers come out, with the exception of the $2 Arkansas Riches card whose $1,000 hot spot is still very much active!

10.16.09 Update: Small news on the big card.

While we continue to wait for the new numbers to come out on the new scratchers that allegedly are starting next Tuesday, I have another hot spot to announce. The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card has 49.5% of its prizes remaining. Its $1,000 prize level has 68% of its awards remaining. That is nearly 19% over the average, so it is ripe to hit. Still have a recommended HOLD on the card however, as I am waiting for the numbers to come out on the new cards and the REST of the prizes on the $5 card are at the average of 49.5% or slightly BELOW.

UPDATE: 2 hours after I posted this, two winners snapped up $1,000 prizes in the $100,000 Cash Bonanza Dropping its Remaining Prizes at the $1,000 level to 65% just like that. It's STILL a hot spot, and as you can see, people are hitting it.

10.15.09 Update: A HOT SPOT HAS FORMED, and hold everything!

SO what are hot spots?  Hot spots are prizes in particular games that are WAY behind the payout schedule. For example take the following table that shows the prize levels of the $2 Jumbo Bucks scratcher, and what percentage of total prizes remain in the game.

Prize	% Remaining
$25,000	63.3%
$500	58.2%
$100	56.0%
$50	56.3%
$30	56.5%
$20	57.8%
$10	58.3%
$5	59.2%
$4	58.9%
$2	60.2%
ALL PRIZES	59.74%

As you can see, 59.74% of all prizes remain in the game, according to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS that means that for the most part all the rest of the prize levels should ALSO be at or around a 59.74% remaining. A four percentage point swing one way or the other should be expected. So any prize remaining percentage between roughly 56% and 63% would be right in line with what should be remaining. Any prize 55% or lower has paid out too many prizes and should expect to go COLD to catch up (Law of Large Numbers), meanwhile any prize at 64% or higher should expect to go HOT to catch up. With Jumbo Bucks we have a range of 56%-63% which is RIGHT in the zone of expected payouts.

NOW let's look at the $2 Arkansas Riches.

Prize	% Remaining
$20,000	50.0%
$1,000	75.6%
$200	55.1%
$100	54.1%
$40	53.5%
$25	54.4%
$10	54.9%
$4	56.5%
$2	57.1%
ALL PRIZES	57.13%

The percentage of all prizes remaining is 57.13%, so expect a remaining range between 53% and 61%. All Prizes are pretty close to that range. the $20,000 top prize is DECIDEDLY COLD right now. But if you look, the $1,000 prize is WAY over range, some 18% higher than where it mathematically SHOULD be. Therefore the $2 Arkansas Riches scratcher has a hot spot right now!


I am still a little torn about my recommendation though, The Arkansas Riches scratcher is so far the stingiest scratcher on the board. It's API (Average Prize Index) has slipped from an initial average prize of $4.98 all the way down to $4.87 (A drop of 11 cents, by far the largest drop on the board). But there is no denying that somewhere out there, exists quite a few $1,000 winners waiting to be picked up.

So for today, DUE to the fact that new scratchers are on their way (numbers any time you're ready there Arkansas Lottery Commission!) I am placing a recommended HOLD on all scratchers. IF you simply cannot WAIT to buy a lottery ticket then I will place a "MILD BUY" on the Arkansas Riches, simply because of the hot spot!

Always remember, play the lottery for entertainment only, if you think you have a problem, you probably do, call your local Gambler's Anonymous!