SO what are hot spots? Hot spots are prizes in particular games that are WAY behind the payout schedule. For example take the following table that shows the prize levels of the $2
Jumbo Bucks scratcher, and what percentage of total prizes remain in the game.
Prize
| % Remaining
|
|---|
$25,000
| 63.3%
|
$500
| 58.2%
|
$100
| 56.0%
|
$50
| 56.3%
|
$30
| 56.5%
|
$20
| 57.8%
|
$10
| 58.3%
|
$5
| 59.2%
|
$4
| 58.9%
|
$2
| 60.2%
|
ALL PRIZES
| 59.74%
|
As you can see, 59.74% of all prizes remain in the game, according to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS that means that for the most part all the rest of the prize levels should ALSO be at or around a 59.74% remaining. A four percentage point swing one way or the other should be expected. So any prize remaining percentage between roughly 56% and 63% would be right in line with what
should be remaining. Any prize 55% or lower has paid out too many prizes and should expect to go COLD to catch up (Law of Large Numbers), meanwhile any prize at 64% or higher should expect to go HOT to catch up. With
Jumbo Bucks we have a range of 56%-63% which is RIGHT in the zone of expected payouts.
NOW let's look at the $2
Arkansas Riches.
Prize
| % Remaining
|
|---|
$20,000
| 50.0%
|
$1,000
| 75.6%
|
$200
| 55.1%
|
$100
| 54.1%
|
$40
| 53.5%
|
$25
| 54.4%
|
$10
| 54.9%
|
$4
| 56.5%
|
$2
| 57.1%
|
ALL PRIZES
| 57.13%
|
The percentage of all prizes remaining is 57.13%, so expect a remaining range between 53% and 61%. All Prizes are pretty close to that range. the $20,000 top prize is DECIDEDLY COLD right now.
But if you look, the $1,000 prize is WAY over range, some 18% higher than where it mathematically SHOULD be. Therefore the $2 Arkansas Riches scratcher has a hot spot right now!
I am still a little torn about my recommendation though, The
Arkansas Riches scratcher is so far the stingiest scratcher on the board. It's API (Average Prize Index) has slipped from an initial average prize of $4.98 all the way down to $4.87 (A drop of 11 cents, by far the largest drop on the board). But there is no denying that somewhere out there, exists quite a few $1,000 winners waiting to be picked up.
So for today, DUE to the fact that new scratchers are on their way (numbers any time you're ready there Arkansas Lottery Commission!) I am placing a recommended HOLD on all scratchers. IF you simply cannot WAIT to buy a lottery ticket then I will place a "MILD BUY" on the Arkansas Riches, simply because of the hot spot!
Always remember, play the lottery for entertainment only, if you think you have a problem, you probably do, call your local Gambler's Anonymous!
