10.16.09 Update2: Easy come, easy go.

When I said it was a hot spot, I didn't know it was nuclear! The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza $1,000 prize tier that I reported this morning at 69% remaining has just hemorrhaged prizes all day long. It is now down to 57% and has officially cooled off! This has been reflected in the left side column. All cards remain at a hold until new numbers for the new scratchers come out, with the exception of the $2 Arkansas Riches card whose $1,000 hot spot is still very much active!

10.16.09 Update: Small news on the big card.

While we continue to wait for the new numbers to come out on the new scratchers that allegedly are starting next Tuesday, I have another hot spot to announce. The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card has 49.5% of its prizes remaining. Its $1,000 prize level has 68% of its awards remaining. That is nearly 19% over the average, so it is ripe to hit. Still have a recommended HOLD on the card however, as I am waiting for the numbers to come out on the new cards and the REST of the prizes on the $5 card are at the average of 49.5% or slightly BELOW.

UPDATE: 2 hours after I posted this, two winners snapped up $1,000 prizes in the $100,000 Cash Bonanza Dropping its Remaining Prizes at the $1,000 level to 65% just like that. It's STILL a hot spot, and as you can see, people are hitting it.

10.15.09 Update: A HOT SPOT HAS FORMED, and hold everything!

SO what are hot spots?  Hot spots are prizes in particular games that are WAY behind the payout schedule. For example take the following table that shows the prize levels of the $2 Jumbo Bucks scratcher, and what percentage of total prizes remain in the game.

Prize	% Remaining
$25,000	63.3%
$500	58.2%
$100	56.0%
$50	56.3%
$30	56.5%
$20	57.8%
$10	58.3%
$5	59.2%
$4	58.9%
$2	60.2%
ALL PRIZES	59.74%

As you can see, 59.74% of all prizes remain in the game, according to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS that means that for the most part all the rest of the prize levels should ALSO be at or around a 59.74% remaining. A four percentage point swing one way or the other should be expected. So any prize remaining percentage between roughly 56% and 63% would be right in line with what should be remaining. Any prize 55% or lower has paid out too many prizes and should expect to go COLD to catch up (Law of Large Numbers), meanwhile any prize at 64% or higher should expect to go HOT to catch up. With Jumbo Bucks we have a range of 56%-63% which is RIGHT in the zone of expected payouts.

NOW let's look at the $2 Arkansas Riches.

Prize	% Remaining
$20,000	50.0%
$1,000	75.6%
$200	55.1%
$100	54.1%
$40	53.5%
$25	54.4%
$10	54.9%
$4	56.5%
$2	57.1%
ALL PRIZES	57.13%

The percentage of all prizes remaining is 57.13%, so expect a remaining range between 53% and 61%. All Prizes are pretty close to that range. the $20,000 top prize is DECIDEDLY COLD right now. But if you look, the $1,000 prize is WAY over range, some 18% higher than where it mathematically SHOULD be. Therefore the $2 Arkansas Riches scratcher has a hot spot right now!


I am still a little torn about my recommendation though, The Arkansas Riches scratcher is so far the stingiest scratcher on the board. It's API (Average Prize Index) has slipped from an initial average prize of $4.98 all the way down to $4.87 (A drop of 11 cents, by far the largest drop on the board). But there is no denying that somewhere out there, exists quite a few $1,000 winners waiting to be picked up.

So for today, DUE to the fact that new scratchers are on their way (numbers any time you're ready there Arkansas Lottery Commission!) I am placing a recommended HOLD on all scratchers. IF you simply cannot WAIT to buy a lottery ticket then I will place a "MILD BUY" on the Arkansas Riches, simply because of the hot spot!

Always remember, play the lottery for entertainment only, if you think you have a problem, you probably do, call your local Gambler's Anonymous!

From the AP: $100,000 lottery winner arrested.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — The Arkansas lottery's first big winner in a scratch-off game is facing a felony charge after allegedly soliciting an undercover police officer for sex in a public park.

Joseph K. Pierce, 34, of Van Buren won the $100,000 prize from a $5 scratch-off ticket Sunday. In August, Fort Smith police reports claim Pierce approached an undercover police officer on a walking trail and agreed to allow the officer to perform oral sex on him.

The arresting officer claims Pierce also exposed himself.

Pierce later pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors over his arrest and received a 10-day sentence and was ordered never to return to the city's parks. Pierce was in court Wednesday to answer to a felony drug charge stemming from the arrest.

Well, I said spend the money wisely, and it looks like he will, on legal bills.

*blush*

Geez, how long have I been calling the $100,000 Cash BONANZA card, the $100,000 Cash BONUS card? Oi vey! Someone tell me when I am fragging up that bad!

A nightmare... and a new gadget on the blog.

I had a nightmare. That the $100,000 winner of the Arkansas Lottery ($5 $100,000 Cash Bonus scratcher) who came out of "Northwest Arkansas" was a Tyson or a Walton. You know, slumming it around the city, pumping their own gas for once and on a lark wanders into the store, and off a chance buys a lottery ticket and blammo, another $100K to throw on their pile.

Didn't happen though, turns out some blue collar from Van Buren who worked at the gas station that sold the ticket won the largest prize (to date) in the Arkansas Lottery. Kicker, just has a baby daughter two days ago. Apparently he plans to use the money (an estimated $75K after taxes etc.) on a house and for his kids. Congratulations sir, spend the money wisely (BUT if you do want to splurge and get a new ATV for yourself hey I won't blame you!)

Meanwhile over on the left side of this blog I have added a new little gadget that will list all the current scratchers available in the lottery and my recommendation on which are the good ones to buy and which ones are best left in their little acrylic prisons on the counter. Arkansas Riches ($2) has burned through half of its top prizes and has an API (Average Prize Index) now at a -.11 cents. Worst buy on the board right now and why it is set to ignore. Jumbo Bucks ($2) is at a "mild buy". $100,000 Cash Bonus ($5) is at a "hold" for the short term at least. Finally with a new stock and a new influx of prizes available 3 Times Lucky ($1) has the lowest API and most money available on it, despite its initial odds (1 to 4.8 against) it is the best buy out there. Not to say that it is a GOOD buy by any means, but right now if you want to burn your money before the new slate of scratchers are to hit (Next Tuesday) it is where you should light the fire.

BIG WINNER and AN ALERT

Arkansas Lottery is reporting the FIRST $100,000 prize has been WON AND SCANNED. That person, that lucky sumbitch is coming to Downtown Little Rock today to claim his cash! I told you last week that the $100,00 Cash Bonus card was primed to spit out one of its golden tickets and boy did it ever! This KILLS the API for the $5.00 ticket I am reccomending that you hold off in buying any more of those in the short term.
 
In the meantime, the Arkansas Lottery has bought a BRAND NEW slate of $1 3 Times Lucky cards. There is now a veritable plethora of winners in the $1 game. It has the lowest API degradation of prizes right now so for the short term, if trying your luck, try the $1 game. Until it burns through some of its new prizes, it has suddenly become the best game in town.

Columbus Day

Due to Columbus Day, the Arkansas Lottery has not yet updated its numbers. I will get the new numbers out there to you as soon as they do tomorrow.