Friday, October 9, 2009

Scratcher Update 10.09.09 : A new recommendation

Since day one of the Arkansas Lottery I have endorsed the Jumbo Bucks ($2) Ticket as the ticket to buy. Well things chance as yesterday the Jumbo Bucks scratcher was hit for two of its top prizes. Dropping the number of top prizes left to 7, or 64% of its starting amount. Its API (Average Prize Index) has also dropped to the worst of all four available scratchers. What a difference a day makes.

I calculate the API for these scratchers two different ways, One that includes the top prize and one that does not. I am conflicted as to which one more accurately reflects the value of the prizes remaining on a scratcher. I am leaning towards the API that INCLUDES the top prize, even though that does tend to skewer the numbers a bit when the top prize is RADICALLY different from the second prize. Using that method here are the APIs for the cards that are out there.

  1. $5 $100,000 Cash Bonus (API +.072)
  2. $2 Arkansas Riches (API -.061)
  3. $1 3 Times Lucky (API -.062)
  4. $2 Jumbo Bucks (API -.073)
In other words, the average prize for the $100,000 Cash Bonus has actually increased 7 cents since the opening, indicating that the prizes are actually getting richer. However, the second that one of the three $100,000 prizes are hit that API ZIPS down to -.095.


It means that the better buy out there right now is the $2 Arkansas Riches Card. Yes the $100,000 Cash Bonus Card still has a much better API but that is tenuous when you consider my above paragraph. However, If you believe in the law of large numbers (like I do) I am estimating that about 30% of the $100,000 Cash Bonus Cards have been burned through, and still no one has at least come forward saying that they have one of those three golden tickets. If one of those golden tickets are not claimed by the middle of next week, it may be time to start looking at the $5 card, as the recommended buy.

BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, I say the best buy is the $2.00 Arkansas Riches card.

Remember to play the lottery for entertainment only, if you have to win you have to stop, if you or a loved one has a problem, contact your local gambler's anonymous immediately!

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