10.23.09 : Small Update, as a card cools down.

The Arkansas Riches Hot Spot has cooled off finally, now the amount of $1,000 prizes are in line with how many should be gone out of the game. So the card itself goes to a HOLD recommendation. Also, yesterday when I said that a few top prizes should start shedding soon? The $2 Crazy 8s card shed one of its top $18,888 prizes yesterday. Congratulations to whoever scratched that! I am still not sold on that card however, remain a recommended IGNORE.

Next week I will be doing an exhaustive treatise on Powerball odds, stick around for that.

POTENTIALLY BIG NEWS!

When news flashed across my desk some weeks ago, about POWERBALL and MEGA MILLIONS cross selling tickets in certain states, I paid it little heed. Oh I was busy, or I deemed it not that important, or whatever. Well (and I truly hope the cat isn't out of the bag prematurely on this) I have word that not only will Arkansas start selling POWERBALL tickets on Oct. 31st, but also will start selling MEGA MILLIONS tickets on January 31st of next year...

Since no one has flashed this anywhere else I will put this into the pile on "unconfirmed static" out there in the news waves (along with the rumor of a $20 scratcher that will release with a top prize of a cool Million, by the end of the year). But if and when it IS confirmed, you heard it here first!


I like this, because the competition for your dollars is going to be extreme! Stay tuned....

10.22.09 Update: New scratchers named,

Man it has been awhile since ANY of the top prizes have hit on ANY of the scratcher cards in the lottery. Good luck when you buy your tickets in the next few days because we are due some big winners REAL soon. Especially the $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card. The top prize is getting plump when you compare the % of prizes remaining at the top tier with the % of prizes remaining overall. I hesitate to call any top prize a Hot Spot, but if it doesn't shed at least one $100,000 prize before next week, I might have to.

Meanwhile, as the new scratchers are just now getting settled into their acrylic counter prisons, the Arkansas Lottery has given us the tease on their webpage for scratcher release THREE. Including one scratcher that will make the $100,000 top prize in Cash Bonanza seem, well, small!

They are:

• Candy Cane Cash (Aw, it's a Christmas theme!) looks to be a $1 ticket
• Stocking Stuffer (See the theme here?) looks to be a $2 ticket
• $50,000 Holiday Cash (Like, I said, it's a theme!) Guessing it HAS to be a $5 ticket.
• $500,000 Jackpot (Jackpot INDEED! Half a million! I am guessing that this is the rumored $10 ticket)

No word yet on when they will start being offered, that I have seen at least. All recommendations stay right where they are. Remember to play the lottery for entertainment only, if you need to win you need to stop! Contact your local Gambler's Anonymous.

10.21.09 : A milestone, A winner, and a RECHARGE!

Sometime overnight, the Arkansas Lottery awarded it's 20 millionth dollar in prize money. As of my last number run the prize total stands at $20,496,437. That is $891,149 a day, or $26.91 a minute awarded. Are you getting a share of that? I did, cashed in a 10x winner ($20 winner off a $2 card) today. Which card? Money Madness. Which so far in my estimation is the best buy on the board right now.

The first scratcher that I ever recommended was the $2 Jumbo Bucks card. This card has the best odds among the $2 tier for prizes at the $26-$99 dollar level (what I call the gold level). Well good news! Overnight this card has been RECHARGED, it went from 5 out of 11 top prizes available to 16 out of 22 top prizes available! This card has become attractive again and which is why I have upgraded it in the left column. I have also downgraded further the $1 cards, waste of time people, stop buying them!

To clean up the news for today. Arkansas Riches ($2) Hot spot continues to glow. The new cards have awarded $309,453 so far, not bad for a late debut in the day. Finally, I have heard that by the end of the year, the Arkansas Lottery will introduce a $10 scratcher, information on that when it becomes available as always

The case of the missing scratchers.

Alright folks, here's the deal. UPS is delivering the scratchers today to the various outposts hither and yon in this fair land of ours. SO as soon as the UPS driver gets to your favorite convenience store, tobacco outlet, bowling alley, what-have-you, the kind proprietor's of said business will log the tickets in and place them inside the acrylic boxes on the counter for you to purchase with hopefully your leisure money and not your rent money.

In short, patience folks, there are PLENTY of tickets to go around! Bringing me to this statement, my intrepid web of secret reporters have reported (as reporters do) that a few people around this state got all irate and ballistic when their store of choice did NOT have the new scratchers. (sigh) People, there is no reason to get all nuclear with the store owner if they don't have the new scratchers. It ain't their fault, they ain't holding out on you. Complain to the Lottery Commission! It was their idea to have these ship the day of, rather than the day before, the starting sale date. A dropped ball and bad PR there Herr Passiguale (sp?).

By the way, my preferred lottery retailer, (Metro in the Union Building, Downtown Little Rock, closest to the Claim Center) does not have them either, but the second they do arrive, they will be logged in and sold to the waiting public. Patience my peeps.

10.20.09 Update: Well someone is selling them...

Heard from Cabot, Hot Springs and Little Rock this morning reporting that they have not received the new scratchers as of yet. But someone out there somewhere is selling them.
As of 9:30 AM this morning
 
$1 Money Bags awarded $10 so far.
$2 Money Madnress awarded $10 so far.
$2 Crazy 8s awarded $30 so far.
$5 $uper 7s awarded $50 so far.

Meanwhile when I am wrong I am wrong, the HOT SPOT on the $2 Arkansas Riches card did not disappear over the night as I thought it would. It is still there, so upgrade on that card until it is gone.

Update 10.20.09: Do not funk with the lottery, IF you can find scratchers that is.

From the KATV Website...

A woman is arrested inside the Arkansas Lottery Headquarters Monday afternoon…and KATV’s cameras were there for the arrest. Police say Ruth Dennis, 56, tried to pass a fake winning ticket for the real thing at the claims center. Her friend, John Burch says he gave Dennis and her sister a ride from Camden with a $3,000 ticket. 

Lottery director Ernie Passailaigue says the ticket was clearly not real. He says she used the three times lucky scratch tickets and allegedly cut and pasted different numbers to make it appear like a winner.


“There’s no cure for stupid,” Passailaigue said, “And that’s what’s going to happen. People are going to try and defraud the lottery and they’re going to go to jail.


Over the past three weeks, Passailaigue says Monday’s incident was the first “fake” ticket arrest in the state. He says the best way to win the lottery is to play it.

Police say the woman has been charged with one count of fraud in relation to the lottery ticket.

Remember folks, it is ILLEGAL to attempt to defraud a state agency, whether it be the Department of Finance and Administration, the Tax Folks, The Farm Agencies, or the Lottery. 


Meanwhile the website has not started rolling the numbers on the new scratchers as of yet. AND I have reports from my army of intrepid field reporters that there are some parts of the state that have not even received the tickets as of yet. AHEM, Yo lottery folks, it is WAY to early in this little experiment for you to be dropping the ball like this! I will have more after lunch.

The New Scratchers arrive Tuesday, here is what YOU need to know.

Four new scratchers are set to start selling tomorrow 10.20.09. They are Money Bags ($1), Money Madness ($2), Crazy 8's ($2), and $uper 7s ($5). Here is the breakdown and my recommendations on what to buy and what to avoid.

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($1) Money Bags - Top Prize $2,000 - Average Prize $2.73

I have maintained from the beginning, that the $1 scratchers are, most of the time, the largest rip-offs on the board. This card is no exception. With a paltry top prize and a WORSE payout schedule than the current $1 3 Times Lucky, I can say it is best to not buy this card. With most $1 scratchers it is this way however. As I have said before, if you have just $1 to play the lottery, do not buy a $1 card, wait until you have another dollar and buy a $2 card.

Initial Recommendation : Don't Buy

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($2) Crazy 8's - Top Prize $18,888 - Average Prize $4.84

I am not terribly impressed with this card. It comes out with the fewest top prizes of any of the $2 tier of cards. It has the worst Estimated Value of the $2 tier. It has the best back of the card odds (1 in 3.96 to win) but that is only half the story, (which is why you read this!). And the lowest Average Prize in the $2 tier. All in all there are just much better cards at this tier right now, not saying that this can't change in the future, but as of right now, just ignore this card.

Initial Recommendation : Ignore

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($5) $uper 7's - Top Prize $77,777 - Average Prize $11.13

It has a lower top prize than the other $5 offering right now, BUT it has better odds throughout it's prize tiers. Also it has a TON of prizes available at its $40 tier. How much is a ton? Well the estimated odds to win the tier above it ($70) are 1 in 330, to win the tier below it ($30) 1 in 160, the estimated odds to win $40 is 1 in 96. All of these odds are better than the same tiers on the $100,000 Cash Bonanza scratcher. So if you are going to buy a $5 card right now, I say buy this one. This is NOT to say that the $100,000 Cash Bonanza card should be put out to pasture, but more on that below.

Initial Recommendation : Buy

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($2) Money Madness - Top Prize $18,000 - Average Prize $5.38

This card makes me smile. It offers FIVE tiers of prizes that are at least $100. No card on the board does that right now, not even the $5 offerings. It's back of the card odds are the highest among the $2 tier, but I think the best assortment of prizes among any of these cards. If you ask me where my first money is landing on the new cards, I would say it is landing right here. It is the Cadillac of the $2 cards and should be on your buying list at the start. I will keep a close eye on this and all cards to see if this changes.

Initial Recommendation : Strong Buy

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And the others?

($1) 3 Times Lucky - Remains a Hold. Again, save your money and get a $2 card.

($2) Arkansas Riches - Has been RECHARGED with more prizes, Still has the $1,000 hot spot as well. Remains a Mild Buy.

($2) Jumbo Bucks - I am keeping at a Hold right now. There are just better options out there.

($5) $100,000 Cash Bonanza - Has been RECHARGED, and in a big way. There are now *FIVE* $100,000 lightning strikes out there. Good Hunting, Upgrade to Mild Buy.

UPDATE - Since this morning the Arkansas Riches Hot Spot has hemorrhaged prizes left and right, I expect it to officially cool down by tomorrow morning, recommendation downgraded to HOLD. 

Late Weekend News, and what to expect from the new scratchers.

The Arkansas Lottery has recharged both the $100,000 Cash Bonanza scratchers and the Arkansas Riches scratchers. The $100,000 Cash Bonanza scratchers now have *FIVE* $100,000 golden tickets out there somewhere. Come back tomorrow where I will have all that news, PLUS I have run the numbers and have my recommendations about what new scratchers are worth it and which ones to avoid. Stay Tuned!

10.16.09 Update2: Easy come, easy go.

When I said it was a hot spot, I didn't know it was nuclear! The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza $1,000 prize tier that I reported this morning at 69% remaining has just hemorrhaged prizes all day long. It is now down to 57% and has officially cooled off! This has been reflected in the left side column. All cards remain at a hold until new numbers for the new scratchers come out, with the exception of the $2 Arkansas Riches card whose $1,000 hot spot is still very much active!

10.16.09 Update: Small news on the big card.

While we continue to wait for the new numbers to come out on the new scratchers that allegedly are starting next Tuesday, I have another hot spot to announce. The $5 $100,000 Cash Bonanza card has 49.5% of its prizes remaining. Its $1,000 prize level has 68% of its awards remaining. That is nearly 19% over the average, so it is ripe to hit. Still have a recommended HOLD on the card however, as I am waiting for the numbers to come out on the new cards and the REST of the prizes on the $5 card are at the average of 49.5% or slightly BELOW.

UPDATE: 2 hours after I posted this, two winners snapped up $1,000 prizes in the $100,000 Cash Bonanza Dropping its Remaining Prizes at the $1,000 level to 65% just like that. It's STILL a hot spot, and as you can see, people are hitting it.

10.15.09 Update: A HOT SPOT HAS FORMED, and hold everything!

SO what are hot spots?  Hot spots are prizes in particular games that are WAY behind the payout schedule. For example take the following table that shows the prize levels of the $2 Jumbo Bucks scratcher, and what percentage of total prizes remain in the game.

Prize	% Remaining
$25,000	63.3%
$500	58.2%
$100	56.0%
$50	56.3%
$30	56.5%
$20	57.8%
$10	58.3%
$5	59.2%
$4	58.9%
$2	60.2%
ALL PRIZES	59.74%

As you can see, 59.74% of all prizes remain in the game, according to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS that means that for the most part all the rest of the prize levels should ALSO be at or around a 59.74% remaining. A four percentage point swing one way or the other should be expected. So any prize remaining percentage between roughly 56% and 63% would be right in line with what should be remaining. Any prize 55% or lower has paid out too many prizes and should expect to go COLD to catch up (Law of Large Numbers), meanwhile any prize at 64% or higher should expect to go HOT to catch up. With Jumbo Bucks we have a range of 56%-63% which is RIGHT in the zone of expected payouts.

NOW let's look at the $2 Arkansas Riches.

Prize	% Remaining
$20,000	50.0%
$1,000	75.6%
$200	55.1%
$100	54.1%
$40	53.5%
$25	54.4%
$10	54.9%
$4	56.5%
$2	57.1%
ALL PRIZES	57.13%

The percentage of all prizes remaining is 57.13%, so expect a remaining range between 53% and 61%. All Prizes are pretty close to that range. the $20,000 top prize is DECIDEDLY COLD right now. But if you look, the $1,000 prize is WAY over range, some 18% higher than where it mathematically SHOULD be. Therefore the $2 Arkansas Riches scratcher has a hot spot right now!


I am still a little torn about my recommendation though, The Arkansas Riches scratcher is so far the stingiest scratcher on the board. It's API (Average Prize Index) has slipped from an initial average prize of $4.98 all the way down to $4.87 (A drop of 11 cents, by far the largest drop on the board). But there is no denying that somewhere out there, exists quite a few $1,000 winners waiting to be picked up.

So for today, DUE to the fact that new scratchers are on their way (numbers any time you're ready there Arkansas Lottery Commission!) I am placing a recommended HOLD on all scratchers. IF you simply cannot WAIT to buy a lottery ticket then I will place a "MILD BUY" on the Arkansas Riches, simply because of the hot spot!

Always remember, play the lottery for entertainment only, if you think you have a problem, you probably do, call your local Gambler's Anonymous!

From the AP: $100,000 lottery winner arrested.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — The Arkansas lottery's first big winner in a scratch-off game is facing a felony charge after allegedly soliciting an undercover police officer for sex in a public park.

Joseph K. Pierce, 34, of Van Buren won the $100,000 prize from a $5 scratch-off ticket Sunday. In August, Fort Smith police reports claim Pierce approached an undercover police officer on a walking trail and agreed to allow the officer to perform oral sex on him.

The arresting officer claims Pierce also exposed himself.

Pierce later pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors over his arrest and received a 10-day sentence and was ordered never to return to the city's parks. Pierce was in court Wednesday to answer to a felony drug charge stemming from the arrest.

Well, I said spend the money wisely, and it looks like he will, on legal bills.

*blush*

Geez, how long have I been calling the $100,000 Cash BONANZA card, the $100,000 Cash BONUS card? Oi vey! Someone tell me when I am fragging up that bad!

A nightmare... and a new gadget on the blog.

I had a nightmare. That the $100,000 winner of the Arkansas Lottery ($5 $100,000 Cash Bonus scratcher) who came out of "Northwest Arkansas" was a Tyson or a Walton. You know, slumming it around the city, pumping their own gas for once and on a lark wanders into the store, and off a chance buys a lottery ticket and blammo, another $100K to throw on their pile.

Didn't happen though, turns out some blue collar from Van Buren who worked at the gas station that sold the ticket won the largest prize (to date) in the Arkansas Lottery. Kicker, just has a baby daughter two days ago. Apparently he plans to use the money (an estimated $75K after taxes etc.) on a house and for his kids. Congratulations sir, spend the money wisely (BUT if you do want to splurge and get a new ATV for yourself hey I won't blame you!)

Meanwhile over on the left side of this blog I have added a new little gadget that will list all the current scratchers available in the lottery and my recommendation on which are the good ones to buy and which ones are best left in their little acrylic prisons on the counter. Arkansas Riches ($2) has burned through half of its top prizes and has an API (Average Prize Index) now at a -.11 cents. Worst buy on the board right now and why it is set to ignore. Jumbo Bucks ($2) is at a "mild buy". $100,000 Cash Bonus ($5) is at a "hold" for the short term at least. Finally with a new stock and a new influx of prizes available 3 Times Lucky ($1) has the lowest API and most money available on it, despite its initial odds (1 to 4.8 against) it is the best buy out there. Not to say that it is a GOOD buy by any means, but right now if you want to burn your money before the new slate of scratchers are to hit (Next Tuesday) it is where you should light the fire.

BIG WINNER and AN ALERT

Arkansas Lottery is reporting the FIRST $100,000 prize has been WON AND SCANNED. That person, that lucky sumbitch is coming to Downtown Little Rock today to claim his cash! I told you last week that the $100,00 Cash Bonus card was primed to spit out one of its golden tickets and boy did it ever! This KILLS the API for the $5.00 ticket I am reccomending that you hold off in buying any more of those in the short term.
 
In the meantime, the Arkansas Lottery has bought a BRAND NEW slate of $1 3 Times Lucky cards. There is now a veritable plethora of winners in the $1 game. It has the lowest API degradation of prizes right now so for the short term, if trying your luck, try the $1 game. Until it burns through some of its new prizes, it has suddenly become the best game in town.

Columbus Day

Due to Columbus Day, the Arkansas Lottery has not yet updated its numbers. I will get the new numbers out there to you as soon as they do tomorrow.

Scratcher Update 10.09.09 : A new recommendation

Since day one of the Arkansas Lottery I have endorsed the Jumbo Bucks ($2) Ticket as the ticket to buy. Well things chance as yesterday the Jumbo Bucks scratcher was hit for two of its top prizes. Dropping the number of top prizes left to 7, or 64% of its starting amount. Its API (Average Prize Index) has also dropped to the worst of all four available scratchers. What a difference a day makes.

I calculate the API for these scratchers two different ways, One that includes the top prize and one that does not. I am conflicted as to which one more accurately reflects the value of the prizes remaining on a scratcher. I am leaning towards the API that INCLUDES the top prize, even though that does tend to skewer the numbers a bit when the top prize is RADICALLY different from the second prize. Using that method here are the APIs for the cards that are out there.

1. $5 $100,000 Cash Bonus (API +.072)
2. $2 Arkansas Riches (API -.061)
3. $1 3 Times Lucky (API -.062)
4. $2 Jumbo Bucks (API -.073)

In other words, the average prize for the $100,000 Cash Bonus has actually increased 7 cents since the opening, indicating that the prizes are actually getting richer. However, the second that one of the three $100,000 prizes are hit that API ZIPS down to -.095.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

It means that the better buy out there right now is the $2 Arkansas Riches Card. Yes the $100,000 Cash Bonus Card still has a much better API but that is tenuous when you consider my above paragraph. However, If you believe in the law of large numbers (like I do) I am estimating that about 30% of the $100,000 Cash Bonus Cards have been burned through, and still no one has at least come forward saying that they have one of those three golden tickets. If one of those golden tickets are not claimed by the middle of next week, it may be time to start looking at the $5 card, as the recommended buy.

BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, I say the best buy is the $2.00 Arkansas Riches card.

Remember to play the lottery for entertainment only, if you have to win you have to stop, if you or a loved one has a problem, contact your local gambler's anonymous immediately!

Date Update, and a REAL good friend!

Well a Jumbo Bucks ticket hit yesterday. Lightning struck one Danny Howell of Garner, $25,000. Here's the cool part, he's blind. He bought the ticket, gave it to a friend to scratch off, and the friend told him he just won $25,000. I could imagine that going the other way if he wasn't a TRUE friend. "Here you go, scratch this for me and tell me if I won". scratchscratchscratch (deep inhale). "Did I win?". (pause) "Yep! You won $100 I'll go cash this in for ya!"

Hopefully his friend is getting a little kickback, a six pack of cold beverages if nothing else.

Also at the board meeting yesterday, Herr Passailaigue announced some upcoming dates for lottery drawings.

October 20th, NEW SCRATCHERS! Details as soon as I get them.
October 31st, Powerball (Natch)
December 4th, Cash 3 (Which I am going to assume is the daily pick 3)
February 2010, Cash 4 (Which I am going to assume is the daily pick 4)
Within the Next Year, Arkansas Lotto, or some other regional lotto game.
Late 2010, A Raffle type game (A $20 ticket with a prize pool of $6M dollars)

No word as of yet when the new scratchers will be debuting. Read www.powerball.com to get acquainted with Powerball as we are now just 22 days away from sales.

Big thanks to Michael R. Wickline and the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette from where I culled information for this blog. Support your local newspaper.

Scratcher Update 10.07.09

The tenth day of the Arkansas Scholarship Lottery has seen it payback, so far, over $8.2 Million dollars in scratcher winnings. Of course the majority of that has not gone home with the winners, as often times is the case, the winners simply turn in their winning scratchers for more scratchers. So when is it a good idea to pocket the money and when is it a good idea to, um, "reinvest" let's say? As a general rule for myself, if the scratcher returns even (1x) or double (2x) I will go back and buy more scratchers with the winnings. Anything more than that, I pocket. So a $2 ticket returning 2x (or $4) I buy $4 more in scratchers. A $2 ticket returning 5x (or $10) I pocket and wait until my next week's lottery budget to purchase more tickets. Reason being, that there is a VERY small chance of getting struck by lightning (what I call winning any of the top 3 prizes in a scratcher's tier), so pocketing the small mircale wins like the 5x example I gave before, puts a little more scratch in your pocket and teaches you the discipline needed to not become an obsessive player. Which we all are going to try and avoid.

Best hit so far personally is still a 10x return off a $2 Arkansas Riches ticket. $20 that was quickly pocketed. The other day I did have the displeasure to witness someone cashing in 3 $5 tickets for a combined hit of $50. That was a *10x* return, that was promptly used to purchase 10 more $5 tickets, bad move ma'am IMHO. Unless of course she finds one of the 3 $100,000 prizes still out there on the $100,000 Cash Bonus scratcher. (Estimated Odds 1 in 927,000)

As far as the current update. The best API (Average Prize Index, the measure of how good the prizes are that remain in a certain game) Still goes to my favored scratcher Jumbo Bucks Down 4.4 cents from the opening. From an average prize of $5.15 to $5.10. It is leading all scratchers right now in API loss, and still has the most lightning strike wins available (10@$25k - 199@$500 - 2,860@$100).

Still no word on when the brain-trust in the Union Building are going to release more scratchers on the apparently willing population, but the second they do, I will be here with the analysis on all of them.

Powerball on October 31st. But that is another blog spot in and of itself.