Arkansas Lottery Behind the Numbers: THE DOPE ON THE NEW SCRATCHERS

Monday, November 9, 2009

THE DOPE ON THE NEW SCRATCHERS

Tomorrow (Tuesday November 10^th) we are receiving the third release of scratch-off tickets for the Arkansas Lottery. There is a Christmas Theme, with 3 out of the 4 cards following suit. Oh, this is cute; these lottery scratchers have little TO and FROM places on them in case you want to give them away as gifts. Question, what would you do if you gave one of those away as a gift and it HITS? Merry Christmas, here’s $50,000! And what did you give me? A Snuggie, wow, that seems a little off there.

Here is the rundown of the new cards

$1 Candy Cane Cash. Top Prizes $1,000-$500-$100

Now you know how much I rag on $1 scratchers. The odds are terrible, the prizes are low, save your money and buy a $2 scratcher instead etc. Well I haven’t changed my policy on that one bit, but if you just ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO BUY a $1 Scratcher, I would recommend this over the other two offerings at this price point. The best back of the card odds of all the $1 scratchers, and a decent array of prizes at several levels. Not saying that this is a great card by any stretch of the imagination, BUT it is the best at this level.

Initial Recommendation: HOLD (the best recommendation at this level)

$2 Stocking Stuffer. Top Prizes $15,000-$300-$150

Color me “meh” with this card, while it is not wholly offensive, it does have the best back of the card odds in the $2 level right now, nothing lights my pants on fire about this card either. It is better than the lower performers at this level (Such as Crazy 8s or Arkansas Riches), but cannot hold a candle to better cards (such as Jumbo Bucks). But the newness of this card compels me to my recommendation, even though it is the first that will more than likely slip down as we go on.

Initial Recommendation: MILD BUY (but might plummet quickly)

$10 $500,000 Jackpot. Top Prizes $500,000-$10,000-$1,000

UPSIDE! There is TWENTY-TWO AND A HALF MILLION DOLLARS waiting to be given away on this card! DOWNSIDE! It’s a TEN Dollar card. UPSIDE! The BEST overall odds at all levels on any scratcher out there now! DOWNSIDE! It’s a TEN Dollar card. UPSIDE! Best Expected Value and Best Prize Average of ANY card out there. DOWNSIDE! It’s a TEN Dollar card! UPSIDE! This is the best card you can buy right now with many prize levels, many GOOD prize levels, and 3 HALF MILLION DOLLAR PRIZES AVAILABLE! DOWNSIDE! It’ll cost you $10, which many people will find better use for than buying a single scratcher.

Initial Recommendation: BUY (But carefully!)

$3 $50,000 Holiday Cash. Top Prizes $50,000-$750-$300

The first Arkansas Lottery Card to be offered as a 3-in-1 card. When you buy this card it is like you are actually buying 3 $1 scratchers. The question is, is it worth it to upgrade from a $2 card to a $3 card? The answer is, yeah! Better odds up to the $100 prize tier than any of the cards below it. Better prize average than any of the cards below it. Finally, a $50,000 top out that is inviting! RIGHT NOW (and I will have to watch this carefully) RIGHT NOW this is my initial recommendation as the scratcher to buy!

Initial Recommendation: STRONG BUY

Just to wrap up, the Crazy 8s cards have been recharged, I believe there are much better buys on the board still however. Two Arkansans won $10,000 in Powerball Saturday night, congratulations. Neither of them opted for the POWER PLAY option, which would have turned that $10,000 into $50,000… Ouch! And my Powerball club bought 40 tickets with the power play option and won a total of ZERO dollars. Total WASHOUT, but there is always next week.

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BEHIND THE NUMBERS, SCRATCHER STATUS

What I am looking at 11.16.09

						Prize Average			API (AvgPzIdx)				Prizes Remaining						Prize Levels
R	#			Odds	EV	Start	Current	$ Given	w/top		wo/top		% Remain	Top	High		Low		Bronze	Silver	Gold	Platinum
1	001	$1	3 Times Lucky	4.8	59.6%	$2.85	$2.78	$7,269,074	(0.064)	11	(0.066)	10	48.47%	53.6%	49.5%	1.1%	45.5%	-3.0%	5.08	87.30	11896.2	118173
2	005	$1	Money Bags	4.63	59.0%	$2.71	$2.69	$1,819,685	(0.023)	7	(0.024)	7	74.98%	77.8%	75.5%	0.5%	71.0%	-4.0%	5.08	108.21	11075.8	112414
3	011	$1	Candy Cane Cash	4.51	61.0%	$2.74	$2.73	$221,409	(0.013)	6	(0.014)	4	91.97%	100.0%	93.8%	1.8%	89.5%	-2.4%	4.76	97.88	754.64	15613.27
1	002	$2	Arkansas Riches	4	63.3%	$4.98	$4.87	$5,598,192	(0.089)	12	(0.110)	12	45.10%	55.6%	48.4%	3.3%	41.9%	-3.2%	4.29	80.05	264.4	2557
1	003	$2	Jumbo Bucks	4.08	65.0%	$5.15	$5.10	$8,677,227	(0.037)	10	(0.051)	9	54.46%	59.1%	55.0%	0.5%	52.4%	-2.0%	4.29	138.19	250.5	1808
2	007	$2	Money Madness	4.32	62.4%	$5.22	$5.19	$1,532,686	(0.024)	9	(0.035)	8	78.14%	83.3%	80.2%	2.1%	75.6%	-2.5%	4.54	47.92	333.1	1209
2	006	$2	Crazy 8's	3.96	62.7%	$4.83	$4.81	$2,150,888	(0.007)	5	(0.019)	5	79.52%	86.7%	80.3%	0.8%	78.7%	-0.8%	4.41	39.28	2486.3	12909
3	009	$2	Stocking Stuffer	3.94	64.7%	$4.98	$4.97	$258,322	(0.023)	8	(0.010)	3	93.83%	83.3%	94.6%	0.8%	93.0%	-0.8%	4.17	91.34	353.26	11492.34
3	010	$3	$50,000 Holiday Cash	3.90	66.1%	$7.43	$7.40	$465,927	0.023	2	(0.020)	6	87.55%	100.0%	93.8%	6.2%	86.7%	-0.9%	4.77	23.69	239.60	4624.22
1	004	$5	$100,000 Cash Bonanza	3.28	68.8%	$10.92	$10.82	$9,597,560	0.019	3	(0.101)	11	49.78%	66.7%	50.3%	0.5%	48.3%	-1.5%	4.30	18.24	67.3	350
2	008	$5	$uper 7s	3.24	68.3%	$10.80	$10.79	$3,313,472	(0.003)	4	(0.010)	1	64.98%	66.7%	76.1%	11.1%	64.0%	-1.0%	4.28	17.77	54.0	4353
3	012	$10	$500,000 Jackpot	3.28	71.8%	$21.99	$21.98	$886,785	0.058	1	(0.010)	2	95.83%	100.0%	100.0%	4.2%	95.5%	-0.3%	10.01	7.51	14.54	319.27

Monday, November 9, 2009

THE DOPE ON THE NEW SCRATCHERS

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Arkansas Lottery Behind the Numbers

BEHIND THE NUMBERS, SCRATCHER STATUS

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What I am looking at 11.16.09